Research Projects

Exploring the intersection of technology, business, and society.

Prediction Markets: Know the Future, Prepare for the Future

A Japanese-language book on prediction markets as institutions for both learning about the future and preparing for it, now available on Amazon Kindle.

View book project

The Temporal Structure of Forecast Error on Polymarket: A Decomposition of Brier Loss over the 30 Days before Operational Market Closure

2026-08-15

Following the same 1,818 Polymarket markets from 30 days to 12 hours before operational closure, this study measures when and by how much Brier loss declines.

From Tokens to Firm Value: A Financial Framework for Token-to-Profit Conversion in Generative AI Adoption

2026-07-13

A financial framework that traces generative AI usage through effective work outputs, NOPAT, ROIC, EVA, and firm value while distinguishing AI-related invested capital from AI utilization capital.

Visualizing Tacit Knowledge — Toward the Unformalizable Frontier

2026-05-11

An executive's intuition, an artisan's hands, the thought patterns rooted in culture — a research program for visualizing the human knowledge long considered impossible to formalize, using LLMs as 'measurement instruments.' Centered on quantifying executive tacit knowledge, with extensions into the expression of cultural knowledge.

Mind Wave Model — Mathematical Simulation of Cognition

2026-04-14

Combining TAP wave propagation theory with the 4-character model to describe human cognition, emotion, and decision-making through wave equations. Includes a case study of a new employee's first-day resignation.

Sales Science — Why We Need This Field Now

2026-03-05

As AI replaces many sales tasks, what only humans can do becomes clearer: trust, empathy, and intelligence. A new academic field built on axiomatic foundations to systematically understand sales phenomena.

Validating the Value-Add of Machine Learning in Multi-Strategy Portfolio Management

2026-03-05

An empirical study examining whether machine learning-based strategy allocation adds value over traditional portfolio construction methods such as Equal Weight and Risk Parity.

Integrated Framework of ROIC and Reverse ROIC Tree

2026-01-20

This research establishes ROIC as the core metric of corporate value creation, clarifies its relationship with EP and DCF models, and presents an integrated reverse ROIC tree framework connecting frontline KPIs with corporate strategy.

Industrial Transformation and Investment Opportunities in an Aging Economy

2026-01-15

By formalizing the aging ratio mathematically, this research derives four structural mechanisms of industrial transformation—automation, consolidation, healthcare, and local commerce—and systematically identifies which sectors gain structural advantage.

Research of Investor Attributes - Behavior Analysis Using Report of Possession and NLP

2026-01-01

Research to clarify activity characteristics of investor types and detailed behavior patterns of activists by utilizing Report of Large Possession database and Natural Language Processing (NLP).

Research and Development of Next-Generation Equity Investment Model and Quant Analysis System

2026-01-01

This research focuses on the analysis, development, and composition of funds for large-scale practical operations by integrating unique alpha analysis models, optimization models, and Large Language Models (LLMs).

Factor-Based Asset Return Simulation Model

2025-10-01

A simulation model that reproduces realistic asset return stochastic processes by comprehensively considering common factors, seasonality effects, policy cycles, market environment shocks, and time-varying correlation structures.

Theoretical Rationale for Engagement Activities

2025-04-29

Research to mathematically clarify the mechanism of corporate value creation through engagement activities and provide a quantitative decision-making framework.

Case-Based Decision Theory and Investment Style Prediction

2025-04-01

Based on Case-Based Decision Theory, past experiences can be used to predict future investment styles. This research examines whether this approach is applicable to practical asset management.

Effectiveness Verification of Multi-Manager and Multi-Strategy Investment

2025-04-01

Research statistically verifying risk reduction and Sharpe ratio improvement effects of multi-strategy investment using bootstrap methods and Monte Carlo simulations.

Quantification of Intangible Assets and Organizational Capability Evaluation

2025-04-01

Research developing quantitative evaluation methods for intangible assets including organizational capability and culture, and analyzing their relationship with corporate value creation.

Other Ongoing Projects

2025-04-01

Other Research Projects

Fusion Research of Human Happiness and Advanced Technology

2025-04-01

Research aiming to establish new management and social philosophies to link the development of AI technology to the true happiness of people.

Research on Integrated Reporting and Board Framework

2025-04-01

Research to clarify the essence of the International Integrated Reporting Framework (IIRC) and provide a systematic framework for value creation discussions in the boardroom.

Human Capital Database Construction and Alpha Factor Research

2025-01-23

Construction of human capital evaluation database based on Toyo Keizai CSR data, and research on alpha factors through integration with stock analysis systems.